Posted on April 5, by energyskeptic [ Yet another wise, thoughtful, and wide-ranging essay from my favorite writer of the many facets of a civilization about to decline as it is starved of the fossil fuels that feed it. Although the topics are quite varied, Heinberg weaves them into a cloth that is more than the sum of the parts in explaining how the future may unfold. Juggling Live Hand Grenades.
An essay on the state of climate change science. The scientific uncertainties associated with climate prediction are the basis of most of the arguments about the significance of climate change 25and as well are the basis of much of the polarized public opinion on the political aspects of the matter.
Imagine a plume of smoke rising from a cigarette into some sort of flue. The stream of smoke is smooth enough for a start, but suddenly breaks into random turbulent eddies whose behaviour is inherently unpredictable.
We can in principle make closely spaced measurements all over the turbulent plume at some particular initial time, and then at regular steps forward in time into the future.
After the first time step, the model uses as its starting point the conditions predicted for the end of the previous step. Predicting the actual value of the average rate of rise of the overall plume is still difficult. A tuneable parameter is a piece of input information whose actual value is chosen on no basis other than to ensure that theoretical simulation matches observation.
Normally it would be used to define something about the average state of the turbulent medium between the grid points of the forecasting model. The climate system is much like the smoke but is vastly more complicated. In principle at least we may be able to make a reasonable forecast of such things as the future global-average temperature and global-average rainfall by using a numerical model and a number of tuneable parameters obtained from observations of present conditions.
Forecasting smaller-scale averages becomes more and more problematic as the scale decreases. This qualitative conclusion is borne out by the year forecasts of global and regional rainfall produced by the various numerical climate models from around the world 1.
While the predicted global averages are reasonably consistent not necessarily correct, but at least to some degree consistent with each otherthe predictions for continental Australia for instance, where the overall average of measured rainfall is currently about mm per year, range from less than mm per year to greater than mm per year.
From which it would seem that long-term predictions of regional rainfall are probably little better than guesswork. The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations took its first steps towards establishing the World Climate Program in the early nineteen-seventies.
Among other things it held an international workshop in Stockholm to define the main scientific problems to be solved before reliable climate forecasting could be possible 2. The workshop defined quite a number, but focused on the two that it regarded as the most important and fundamental.
The first concerned an inability to simulate the amount and character of clouds in the atmosphere. The second concerned an inability to forecast the behaviour of oceans. Oceans are important because they are the main reservoirs of heat in the climate system.
They have internal, more-or-less random, fluctuations on all sorts of time-scales ranging from years through to centuries. Many of the problems of simulating the behaviour of clouds and oceans are still there along with lots of other problems of lesser moment and for many of the same reasons as were appreciated at the time 26,Search for printer HOME: The Discovery of Global Warming February The Modern Temperature Trend.
Tracking the world's average temperature from the late 19th century, people in the s realized there had been a pronounced warming trend.
Preface. India was planning to build six fast breeder reactors in , but now in , they’ve reduced the number to 2.
This is despite the high cost, instability, danger, and accidents of the 16 previous world-wide attempts that have shut down, including the Monju fast breeder in Japan, which began decommissioning in By Elmer Beauregard.
The Senate voted this week on whether Climate Change is real or a hoax, I think it’s a hoax and here’s why. I’m sure you’ve heard in the . Topic: Awareness in space.. Unispace+ What is it? UNISPACE+50 was held recently to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the first United Nations Conference on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space and highlight past and future Agency activities in support of the UN’s space-related actions.
Over half of the world’s forests have been destroyed in the last 10, or so years — the majority of this loss has occurred in just the last 50 years, occurring simultaneously with a massive increase in the human population. The Current Climate Change Trend In Malaysia.
Print Reference this. Published: 23rd March, Last Edited: 5th May, Disclaimer: This essay has been submitted by a student. This is not an example of the work written by our professional essay writers. perception, and understanding regarding the current climate change, and to reach.